While this is not really a weather hazard right now, DC forecasters have been watching the weather patterns and are predicting storms in the evening over the next couple days. Residents of Virginia already know that a hot a humid day typically turns into a stormy and wet night so this prediction is not out of the ordinary for the state. What is different is the fact that there is a chain of storms heading this way from the South (Texas).
The same storm that has spurred tornadoes in Texas and dumped endless rain in Missouri and Arkansas is heading this way. Forecasters in that region are expecting this chain of thunderstorms to make it to New York by Monday evening which puts the chance of thunderstorms for us somewhere between Monday evening and early Tuesday morning.
A LOOK AHEAD
Out ahead of a storm system wrapping up over the central part of the country, we stay in the warm air going into Monday. Skies should start off with plenty of sun, but clouds increase during the afternoon as a front approaches from the west. There could be a line of showers and storms in the afternoon, although at this point, it looks as though that risk could hold off until the evening or overnight, which would diminish the intensity. Highs should reach at least 80 most spots, and perhaps as high as the mid-80s. Confidence:Medium
The main storm and front have passed for Tuesday, but cooler air lags a bit. With a west wind off the mountains, it’s still warm. Highs are near 80. Clouds may increase in the afternoon with cold air floating by aloft. Confidence: Medium
At the time this article was written (Saturday morning), the storm was passing through Kentucky and Tennessee. In Virginia (or DC, to be more specific), we experienced a very hot a humid day with overcast skies. An early morning shower added to the humidity in the air. By the end of the day, the sun came out strong to finish the day. Sunday morning was equally hot and humid but more sunny. Since the storms are expected to arrive Monday evening, the article mentioned that the cooler temperatures will lessen the intensity of our expected impact.
After tornadoes ripped through northern Texas on Saturday evening, the states of Alabama all the way up to Indiana can expect to see sever thunderstorms going into Sunday night. The storm, the same one who generated the tornadoes for Texas and Oklahoma, is moving in a northeast direction and is expected to bring storms into New York by Monday evening. With this system, the hazards expected are as follows:
- Blinding rain
- Strong Winds
- Possible river-flooding on side-streets
The storm is fueled from the heat and humidity typical to these states. Unfortunately, this storm is coming on the heels of another one that passed through the same projected regions last weekend.
Last night (Saturday evening), five people were killed in the four confirmed tornadoes in Texas. All of the deaths occurred in Van Zandt county. In addition to the five deaths, fifty people were injured while the storm caused significant property damage to houses and businesses.
People in the projected path are being urged to keep track of the storm and the weather radar to know if and when they can expect any weather hazards.
Residents of Spotsylvania are currently under a Boil Water Advisory after a water main break along Route One. A pre-drafted notice was sent out to people living within the affected areas. There is not an estimated time when the water will be restored to full, non-hazardous levels but crews are on the job to isolate where the break happened. This same affected area was left without water early this morning.
On the county website, the above map was posted to show the estimated reach of this hazard. There is also a copy of the notice that was sent out as well as directions and FAQs for information.
This water main break is occurring on the tail-end of the annual Water Flushing Program that started on March 20 of this year and was estimated to be completed sometime in May. Under the flushing program, water pumped to residents and businesses who use city/county water will be going through the disinfection process with a slight change where they will no longer be adding ammonia for about a month. No word as of now if the activity from the flushing program has anything to do with the break.
News Article: http://www.fredericksburg.com/news/business/main-break-shuts-off-water-along-u-s-in-spotsylvania/article_b5892644-2692-11e7-8a99-53925878a064.html
Map of affected areas: http://www.spotsylvania.va.us/filestorage/21027/30276/119/32916/35486/BWN.pdf
Flushing Program: http://www.spotsylvania.va.us/filestorage/20925/21015/21972/24286/24322/Flushing_FLS_ad_2017_(City_and_County).pdf
Not much to say here. Post speaks for itself but NOAA currently has flood levels for the Rappahannock set at 9 1/2 feet with an estimated 13 1/2 feet by morning. The link directly below is the public alert notification that I’m sure most of you received around 845 pm. It provides mitigation’s specific to our location.
A tornado was reported to have touched down today in Norman, OK, a town roughly 20 miles south of Oklahoma City and home to the University of Oklahoma and the National Storm Prediction Center. Early reports noted gas leaks throughout the town, and a power outage affecting most of the residents of Norman. The class of the tornado does not yet appear to have been determined, but it was apparently hidden by rain, making it more deadly.
This tornado is just the first of an outbreak expected to occur tonight and into tomorrow as supercells form across both Oklahoma and Kansas.
The above picture from the Weather Channel clearly shows the front moving through both of these states. Any tornadoes could be on the ground for a while, since the thunderstorms spawning them will be continuously traveling ahead of the front.
According to NOAA, March 2012 recorded 223 tornadoes, 143 more than the usual average of 80.
Information in this post was found here.
The above link is an article from MSNBC about the wildfires on the eastcoast, resulting from the conditions that led to yesterdays “Red flag” warning.
The major focus of the article is on a wildfire that is the combination of two previous fires on Long Island. In such a densely populated area, such a “wildfire” can almost certainly be attributed to lack of public knowledge and education about what a “red flag” warning is and means.
The article notes that over 1000 acres in Suffolk county, NY, have been burned, as well as private residences and commercial properties. The wildfires are so prevalent not only because of the wind, but were already likely from the extremely dry winter and (so far…) spring.