While this is not really a weather hazard right now, DC forecasters have been watching the weather patterns and are predicting storms in the evening over the next couple days. Residents of Virginia already know that a hot a humid day typically turns into a stormy and wet night so this prediction is not out of the ordinary for the state. What is different is the fact that there is a chain of storms heading this way from the South (Texas).
The same storm that has spurred tornadoes in Texas and dumped endless rain in Missouri and Arkansas is heading this way. Forecasters in that region are expecting this chain of thunderstorms to make it to New York by Monday evening which puts the chance of thunderstorms for us somewhere between Monday evening and early Tuesday morning.
A LOOK AHEAD
Out ahead of a storm system wrapping up over the central part of the country, we stay in the warm air going into Monday. Skies should start off with plenty of sun, but clouds increase during the afternoon as a front approaches from the west. There could be a line of showers and storms in the afternoon, although at this point, it looks as though that risk could hold off until the evening or overnight, which would diminish the intensity. Highs should reach at least 80 most spots, and perhaps as high as the mid-80s. Confidence:Medium
The main storm and front have passed for Tuesday, but cooler air lags a bit. With a west wind off the mountains, it’s still warm. Highs are near 80. Clouds may increase in the afternoon with cold air floating by aloft. Confidence: Medium
At the time this article was written (Saturday morning), the storm was passing through Kentucky and Tennessee. In Virginia (or DC, to be more specific), we experienced a very hot a humid day with overcast skies. An early morning shower added to the humidity in the air. By the end of the day, the sun came out strong to finish the day. Sunday morning was equally hot and humid but more sunny. Since the storms are expected to arrive Monday evening, the article mentioned that the cooler temperatures will lessen the intensity of our expected impact.
After tornadoes ripped through northern Texas on Saturday evening, the states of Alabama all the way up to Indiana can expect to see sever thunderstorms going into Sunday night. The storm, the same one who generated the tornadoes for Texas and Oklahoma, is moving in a northeast direction and is expected to bring storms into New York by Monday evening. With this system, the hazards expected are as follows:
- Blinding rain
- Strong Winds
- Possible river-flooding on side-streets
The storm is fueled from the heat and humidity typical to these states. Unfortunately, this storm is coming on the heels of another one that passed through the same projected regions last weekend.
Last night (Saturday evening), five people were killed in the four confirmed tornadoes in Texas. All of the deaths occurred in Van Zandt county. In addition to the five deaths, fifty people were injured while the storm caused significant property damage to houses and businesses.
People in the projected path are being urged to keep track of the storm and the weather radar to know if and when they can expect any weather hazards.
On Wednesday Nigeria issued a warning to all pilots and airline operators in the country to comply with directives on the recent inherent danger associated with severe thunder storms in the country. It was based on the 2017 Seasonal Rainfall Prediction by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency. The hazards are micro-burst, low level wind shears and hail events.
Severe thunderstorms and accompanying hail, winds, and tornadoes are expected to move through the South, Plains, and Midwest, tonight and through the weekend. Heavy rain could also produce dangerous flash flooding.
A large low-pressure system is beginning to move through the southern Plains, and is expected to move through the rest of the midwest along with areas along a very active jet stream. April is usually a very active month for thunderstorms and tornadoes, and 2017 was no excuse.
As of 7:45 pm on April 27, a tornado watch has been issued for parts of middle Georgia. Other parts of Georgia and Alabama have reported tornadoes throughout the day Thursday. More tornadoes are expected throughout the weekend, as as the storm system moves east, severe and regular thunderstorms will follow and are expected to effect states as far east as Virginia by Sunday.
The current round of thunderstorms hitting the Mississippi River Valley has been severe, and have already caused some flash flooding in parts of the Orzaks. There has already been one water rescue in Fayetteville, Arkansas, and several roads in northern Arkansas and southern Missouri have been shut down due to flooding. Despite this, the major threat comes from this coming weekend, with flood warnings encompassing much of the mid-west region.
The general timeline for this weekend’s flooding is as follows:
- “Through early Thursday: From northeast Texas, northern Louisiana and western Mississippi to as far north as Illinois
- Friday night/early Saturday: From the mid-Mississippi Valley to Oklahoma, particularly the Ozarks
- Saturday and Saturday night: From east Texas and western Louisiana to Illinois and Missouri
- Sunday and Sunday night: From the middle and lower Mississippi Valleys into parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.”
The greatest potential heavy rain threat spans the Ark-La-Tex region north through the Mississippi River Valley, goign as far as southern Ohio. This threat is expected to stay through late Sunday, keeping the potential for flash floods high.
A squall of severe thunderstorms are moving through Arkansas tonight. The storm has produced wind gusts up to 70 mph. The storm is still moving through Arkansas, but so far it has damaged houses, knocked down trees, produced hail, and spawned a possible tornado. It has also caused roads to close because of flooding. The storm also has a significant amount of lightning.
Flooding from the heavy rain has caused a large hole to open in the middle of Blue Springs Road in Arkansas. The large hole has caused the road to close and they have put barriers in front of the hole to prevent anyone from coming to close.
At 7pm on Friday the 21st, heavy rain poured on Colonial Beach. Colonial Beach Fire Department Chief David Robey said early estimates show the storm caused more than $1 million in damage to numerous houses. One house was destroyed, six severely damaged and 25 others were “impacted by the storm.” Reports say that the storm had 70mph winds and made 3,000 homes lose power. There were no serious injuries or deaths.
A severe thunderstorm passed through the D.C. area late on Friday. The small intense thunderstorm did not last long but it did cause a decent amount of damage. As the thunderstorm quickly moved through the area it produced heavy rain, quarter sized hail, strong winds, and lots of lightning. About 4,000 homes and business lost power Friday evening when the thunderstorm knocked down power lines. The hardest hit area were Takoma Park, Maryland and part of D.C. Falling trees caused damage to property and smashed cars. Lucky only minor injures were reported. Two people had to be rescued from Rock Creek State Park because of rushing water.
Forecasters are claiming an area including the cities of Jackson, Tupelo and Vicksburg which houses more than 1.3 million people is at risk, in response to the national Storm Prediction Center’s placing a large part of Mississippi at the highest risk of severe storms on Saturday.
The storm is expected to leave the Mississippi area by the evening. Forecasters say parts of the Louisiana, Alabama and Georgia could also see storms Saturday and Sunday.
Thunderstorms are becoming more and more common in the east coast due to the coming of the hot, humid summer months. The gulf region states are particularly humid all year round and have a tendency to experience intense, but generally quick, thunderstorms during the hottest months.
Severe thunderstorms are causing hail, possible tornadoes, and damaging winds in Arkansas and Oklahoma. The thunderstorms were predicted to have straight line winds, large hail, and possibly create tornadoes. The severe thunderstorms will pass through Arkansas and Oklahoma in two rounds. The first set of storms was moving through Arkansas as of 2:00 pm this afternoon. So far the storm has knocked down tree branches and caused flooding. The second round of thunderstorms will pass through Arkansas late this afternoon and evening and will be gone by Saturday morning. Wind gusts up to 70 mph are expected in addition to 1 to 3 inches of rain in certain areas. Flood warning have also been issued for central Oklahoma. Last night and earlier today severe supercell thunderstorms caused damage in Texas. The thunderstorms are part of a multiple day serve weather event that is crossing the south this weekend.