DC Weather Forecast predicts the possible storms

While this is not really a weather hazard right now, DC forecasters have been watching the weather patterns and are predicting storms in the evening over the next couple days. Residents of Virginia already know that a hot a humid day typically turns into a stormy and wet night so this prediction is not out of the ordinary for the state. What is different is the fact that there is a chain of storms heading this way from the South (Texas).

The same storm that has spurred tornadoes in Texas and dumped endless rain in Missouri and Arkansas is heading this way. Forecasters in that region are expecting this chain of thunderstorms to make it to New York by Monday evening which puts the chance of thunderstorms for us somewhere between Monday evening and early Tuesday morning.

A LOOK AHEAD

Out ahead of a storm system wrapping up over the central part of the country, we stay in the warm air going into Monday. Skies should start off with plenty of sun, but clouds increase during the afternoon as a front approaches from the west. There could be a line of showers and storms in the afternoon, although at this point, it looks as though that risk could hold off until the evening or overnight, which would diminish the intensity. Highs should reach at least 80 most spots, and perhaps as high as the mid-80s. Confidence:Medium

The main storm and front have passed for Tuesday, but cooler air lags a bit. With a west wind off the mountains, it’s still warm. Highs are near 80. Clouds may increase in the afternoon with cold air floating by aloft. Confidence: Medium

At the time this article was written (Saturday morning), the storm was passing through Kentucky and Tennessee. In Virginia (or DC, to be more specific), we experienced a very hot a humid day with overcast skies. An early morning shower added to the humidity in the air. By the end of the day, the sun came out strong to finish the day. Sunday morning was equally hot and humid but more sunny. Since the storms are expected to arrive Monday evening, the article mentioned that the cooler temperatures will lessen the intensity of our expected impact.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/04/29/d-c-area-forecast-way-too-hot-and-humid-today-not-much-better-tomorrow/?utm_term=.3b969b8404a3

 

More Severe Weather in the South

Sunday severe PM April 30

 

After tornadoes ripped through northern Texas on Saturday evening, the states of Alabama all the way up to Indiana can expect to see sever thunderstorms going into Sunday night. The storm, the same one who generated the tornadoes for Texas and Oklahoma, is moving in a northeast direction and is expected to bring storms into New York by Monday evening. With this system, the hazards expected are as follows:

  • Blinding rain
  • Flash-flooding
  • Strong Winds
  • Hail
  • Tornadoes
  • Possible river-flooding on side-streets

The storm is fueled from the heat and humidity typical to these states. Unfortunately, this storm is coming on the heels of another one that passed through the same projected regions last weekend.

Last night (Saturday evening), five people were killed in the four confirmed tornadoes in Texas. All of the deaths occurred in Van Zandt county. In addition to the five deaths, fifty people were injured while the storm caused significant property damage to houses and businesses.

People in the projected path are being urged to keep track of the storm and the weather radar to know if and when they can expect any weather hazards.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/illinois-to-louisiana-to-face-severe-weather-threat-into-sunday-night/70001539

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/reports-deadly-tornadoes-strike-texas-as-severe-storms-and-flooding-pummel-central-us/70001534

 

Case Study Summary — Reid

Hurricane Camille

Image result for hurricane camille damages

Hurricane Camille was a storm that developed off the coast of West Africa. It grew in intensity as it traveled across the Atlantic and hit Cuba as a Category 2. After wreaking havoc on Cuba, the hurricane came into the Gulf of Mexico, gained strength, and hit the coast of Mississippi as a Category 5 hurricane on August 17, 1969. The winds were measured at 180-190 mph with gales of 210-mph at its strongest. Whole towns were leveled from both the wind and the storm surge from the storm. There are pictures that show where entire buildings were before the storm and then that same building missing in a picture taken after the storm. One of the reasons for the high death toll of this storm was the timing of the major points of the storm. When the storm first made landfall, it was a little before midnight.

As Hurricane Camille moved through Mississippi, it weakened and crossed the northern border as simply a Tropical Depression. Unfortunately, the storm met with a line of storms from a Tropical cyclone that was passing over Kentucky and regained some of its strength as it turned into Virginia. It dropped torrential rain for roughly eight hours (according to reports), causing flash flooding and landslides on either side of the Appalachian mountains. Like the initial landfall, most of the damage was done in the middle of the night. The rain in Virginia started around 10pm and did not let up until the early morning. The storm finally returned to Atlantic ocean late on August 20th.

What I found particularly interesting was the response to the storm. Some 17 Federal Agencies came to help with the recovery efforts. The usual people were there like the Military and the Red Cross. The IRS and the Treasury also aided in recovery efforts. The IRS helped people who sustained large property losses as well as gave information about “casualty deductions.” When it came time for the people of Mississippi to rebuild their towns, they essentially ignored making any efforts towards lasting mitigation. Instead, they rebuilt buildings on the same land that had just flooded without raising the structures or designing them to withstand high winds. In regards to the shore, they rebuilt the large hotels and apartment complexes along the water without modifying them for future storm surge.

The total deaths from this storm was over 262 and the estimated damages was around $1.5 billion (1969 values).

Related image

Water Main Break in Spotyslvania

Residents of Spotsylvania are currently under a Boil Water Advisory after a water main break along Route One. A pre-drafted notice was sent out to people living within the affected areas. There is not an estimated time when the water will be restored to full, non-hazardous levels but crews are on the job to isolate where the break happened. This same affected area was left without water early this morning.

 

 

 

On the county website, the above  map was posted to show the estimated reach of this hazard. There is also a copy of the notice that was sent out as well as directions and FAQs for information.

This water main break is occurring on the tail-end of the annual Water Flushing Program that started on March 20 of this year and was estimated to be completed sometime in May. Under the flushing program, water pumped to residents and businesses who use city/county water will be going through the disinfection process with a slight change where they will no longer be adding ammonia for about a month. No word as of now if the activity from the flushing program has anything to do with the break.

News Article:  http://www.fredericksburg.com/news/business/main-break-shuts-off-water-along-u-s-in-spotsylvania/article_b5892644-2692-11e7-8a99-53925878a064.html

Map of affected areas:  http://www.spotsylvania.va.us/filestorage/21027/30276/119/32916/35486/BWN.pdf

Flushing Program:  http://www.spotsylvania.va.us/filestorage/20925/21015/21972/24286/24322/Flushing_FLS_ad_2017_(City_and_County).pdf

Southern Weather Storms: Update

The severe weather expected in the Southeastern states has started, kicking off with a tornado that touched down and travelled through Goodman, Missouri on Tuesday night.  Local news channels have reported two people injured and damage to the fire department, an elementary school, and parts of the downtown area. Fortunately, no fatalities have been reported. The tornado was assigned an EF – 2 rating by the National Weather Service based on a damage survey of the area. The town was under a  tornado warning last night.

As the impending storms begin, the more southern states have began preparing for the severe weather. The Governor of Alabama declared a state of emergency Tuesday in anticipation of Wednesday’s forecasts. 50 National Guard soldiers have also been deployed to the area to assist any rescue and recovery efforts during the warning. Schools were closed as well in an effort to keep everyone safe and off the roads.

The PGA Master’s Tour in Augusta, Georgia had to suspend a practice round as storms began around 11am this morning. Warner Robins, a town in central Georgia, is using Facebook as a means of communicating to local residents that they’re city hall has opened the doors to be used as a storm shelter.

Link to article: https://weather.com/news/news/southeast-severe-weather-april-2017-impacts

New England invites Thesus to celebrate April Fool’s Day

Over the weekend, New England and upstate New York had the pleasure of meeting Winter Storm Thesus on April’s Fools (Saturday). The cold air that was already in place combined with a low pressure in the Atlantic, right off the Jersey and Long Island coast. The storm dropped a good amount of snow and sleet with Vermont and Maine reporting snow accumulation into the teens. The stats from selected reports were given in the article.

Snow and Ice Reports

Here are selected snowfall and ice reports through Saturday evening:

  • Connecticut:  4.0 inches of snow in Acton; 012 inches of ice in Tolland
  • Maine:  13.4 inches in Steep Falls; 12.7 inches in Gray (NWS office); 10.8 inches in Portland
  • Massachusetts:  8.7 inches in Ashburnham and 1.6 inches in Boston; 2.0 inches of sleet in Barre; 0.25 inches of ice in Rutland
  • New Hampshire:  19.0 inches in Washington; 12.0 inches in Concord
  • New York:  8.5 inches in Elizabethtown and near Keene Valley; 0.10 inches of ice in Lake Pleasant
  • Pennsylvania:  0.13 inches of ice at the Pocono Mountains Airport
  • Vermont:  15.8 inches near Rochester; 13.0 inches in Killington; 6.7 inches in Burlington

 

The article also went on to reminisce about the Blizzard that hit the same area 20 years ago.  A low pressure system coming from the Ohio valley moved slowly over the region, leading to a steady snowfall averaging 3 inches per hour in some parts. Massachusetts received the brunt of the blizzard; half the state logged 10-20 inches and the other half, closer to the coast, reported 20-30 inches.

While Thesus may have been a rude introduction into a new month, it was certainly better than how New England started Spring in 1997.

 

Link to the Article:  https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-storm-theseus-northeast-new-england-april-fools-snow

Small Earthquake(s) in Mt. Gambier

 

“Humans make great seismologists — we are pretty sensitive. We feel every little bump that goes off.”

There were two earthquakes felt by the residents in Wandilo, Australia, a city located north-west of Mount Gambier. The tremors were so small, they went undetected by the seismograph. Rather, the scientists in charge of the Geoscience Australia website learned about the earthquakes from residents who reported it on the webpage. The scientists estimate that the initial tremor could be felt about 25 kilometers away from the estimated epicenter.

The second earthquake, occurring at roughly 5pm (local time) may have just been a secondary quake linked to the first one. The data from the monitors will let them know if it was a true, independent case or not.

This is the second (and possibly third) earthquake of the year for this area. The first occurrence was in early February.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-20/small-earthquakes-felt-in-mount-gambier/8368678

 

C.Reid