Natural Hazards

Tropical Cyclone Heidi scraped the coast of Port Hedland as a tropical low on Jan. 12 leaving normally dry riverbeds flooded between Chichester and Hamersley ranges in Australia. The flooding forced iron ore miners to cease work on a very successful mine,Australia’s 3rd largest ore producer Cloudbreak mine and Christmas Creek.

“Cloudbreak, which produces 40 million metric tons a year of the steelmaking material, and Christmas Creek, with output of 15 million tons a year”

The mines were only closed for two days, and damage was considered minimal. Alerts were sent out at 9:20am to inform others that the flooding was sure to occur.

– This article gave me a more clear understanding of the difference between “natural hazard” and “natural disaster”
This event would most certainly qualify as a natural hazard, certainly enough to be feature on NASA’s Earth Observatory. There were warnings issued, evacuations, damage, and most importantly money was lost.

But I would hardly consider it a major disaster, because no lives were lost.
Perhaps the loss of life is what qualifies a disaster?

Link

Since December 27th wild fires have rages in western Australia.  These fires have not been classified as a natural disaster.  Though the areas effected are mostly farmland, I thought that this brought up an interesting point.  As we learned from our lecture on Friday, a natural disaster is one that affects people.  So, since these fires mainly effect property, should they be considered a natural disaster?  What do you think?

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/12716083/nw-fire-should-be-natural-disaster/

This article ties in nicely with our discussion about predictions and vulnerability of populations. According to a research team from the University of Tokyo, compared to previous years, the seismic activity occurring near the Tokyo area has been five times greater since the 9.0 magnitude quake hit Japan’s northeastern shore last March. Due to this massive uptick in activity, they predict there is a 75% chance of a magnitude 7.0 earthquake hitting Tokyo in the next four years, but the Japanese government disagrees; it predicts only a 70% chance of the same event happening over the next 30 years.

So, who’s correct? And does it even matter? The article calls Japan one of the most quake-prone countries in the world. And we know that predictions are essentially educated guesses; there could be an even stronger earthquake that hits Japan in fewer than the predicted four years. There’s no way to tell what the future will bring. It’s not clear if the Japanese government is trying to ignore the possibility of another earthquake, or if they just have different results, but either way, their number one priority should be preparing for the next one, regardless of when it may or may not happen.

In the past year the US has seen a record number of billion dollar natural disasters. From Hurricane Irene, extreme Wildfires, abnormal earthquake on the east coast as well Tornados touching down everywhere imaginable. Not only has the government, and private sector suffered large economic losses but so have people all across the country. Along with the problems in the economy, many families who suffered damages from Natural Disasters are not always able to rebuild in a sustainable and effective manner to prevent increased damages from future Natural Disasters. In order to help citizens suffering from losses and prevent larger economic turmoil, the federal government and the IRS have decided to give a tax break to those citizens who have experienced damages that exceed the cost of 10 percent of their taxable income. Tax payers who have experienced “The damage, destruct or loss of your property from any sudden, unexpected or unusual event such as a flood, hurricane, tornado, fire, earthquake or even a volcanic eruption” will be able to receive money from the federal government with the purpose to rebuild their homes. Hopefully this new tax code will lead more sustainable structures that can endure Natural Hazards. And help those who suffered through these disasters to be more economically stable.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/taxes/story/2012-01-21/taxes-disaster-relief/52700894/1

http://www.irs.gov/businesses/small/article/0,,id=156138,00.html

South African government has proposed a change to their Weather Service Bill which would make it a crime for meteorologists to issue severe weather warnings without prior permission – with the threat of jail time or a hefty fine for those that do! Read about it in the Daily Telegraph.

The goal seems to be to prevent false predictions – and the attendant panic and economic upheaval that goes with them – but perhaps also it is to make the weather service more believable and reliable, and to have the public respond with confidence when there IS a warning. It seems that ‘official’ warnings will be approved; it is more casual, but perhaps better real-time warnings, that are considered problematic.

Of course, the foreign media is having a field day with this. The official opposition party thinks it foolish and people are joking about South Africa going backward…  but not knowing anything about weather reports or forecasts in South Africa, I have to say that BAD forecasting is damaging – like crying fire in a movie theater when there is none – and perhaps local meteorologists need to be reigned in…

Munich Re, a ‘reinsurance’ giant (they insure the insurance companies) has released its annual report on disasters in 2011. 2011 was the costliest ever in terms of natural catastrophes – almost 2/3 higher than the previous highest year, 2005. What tops the list?

Earthquake & Tsunami in Japan, March

Earthquake in Christchurch, New Zealand in February

Although 90% of events were weather related (think: Hurricane & Tropical Storm Irene, all those tornadoes, flooding, drought), two-thirds of the economic losses and about half the insured losses were from geophysical events (earthquakes, volcanoes). About 70% of economic losses occurred in Asia.

NPR had a short piece (2 minutes, 30 seconds) on how disasters in the USA during 2011 will cause increases in insurance rates in 2012, by perhaps 10%. The US experienced about $35 billion in insurance losses last year, but $70 billion in economic losses! The year was unusual in that there was no single large event causing the damage – instead there were several smaller weather-related events that caused $1-2 billion…  again, flooding, drought, wildfires, lots of tornadoes, a blizzard…  The main reason for the insurance rate hikes are that the areas impacted are away from the ‘traditional’ danger zones – the coastline and seismically active areas, where insurance rates are carefully modeled and kept up to date. Places that experienced disaster in 2011 were likely under-insured from an insurance company’s perspective, so their rates will be ‘revised and recalculated’ for 2012.

This page on NPR basically tells the same story, with a focus more on the events than insurance issues, and it includes a graphic from NOAA:

Number of billion-dollar events by year

Do you remember the Icelandic Volcano that disrupted air travel in spring 2010? In December of 2011, another – larger – Icelandic volcano was noted by the BBC as being increasingly active. If it erupted, it could cause far greater problems than occurred almost 2 years ago…  Check it out here.

At the end of our textbook is a chapter on asteroid impacts… they are a natural hazard, and would certainly be disastrous to life as we know it today!

Back in November, 2011, a large asteroid passed close by earth, and I read a BBC article about it; there is a not-very-impressive video too! This was 2005 YU55 – the largest asteroid to pass close by since 1976! The next large one will swing by in 2028.

Since that was so interesting, I explored the NASA web site on Near Earth Objects.  It has all kinds of cool information! Click on Close Approaches, and any one of the named objects, and you’ll see it’s orbit around the Sun… click on the >> key to animate, it will make much more sense!

How does it make you feel to know that scientists monitor asteroids so closely?!

This BBC article is about the toll of earthquakes on our mental health – rather than dealing with immediate deaths and injuries, it tells that depression and anxiety are higher after earthquakes than other hazards.

Dust storms are a weather-related hazard and are common in certain types of location. This is an unusual film clip because you can see the event happening, and its aftermath.

This is from the BBC; the date is October 5, 2011. I-10 Arizona dust storm